{"id":41640,"date":"2024-03-04T16:07:52","date_gmt":"2024-03-04T12:07:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/?p=41640"},"modified":"2024-03-04T16:07:52","modified_gmt":"2024-03-04T12:07:52","slug":"investazdan-dunya-maliyy%c9%99-bazarlari-il%c9%99-bagli-h%c9%99ft%c9%99lik-analiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/?p=41640","title":{"rendered":"\u201cInvestAZ\u201ddan d\u00fcnya maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 h\u0259ft\u0259lik analiz"},"content":{"rendered":"

ECB-d\u0259n faiz q\u0259rar\u0131, yoxsa AB\u015e-dan NFP hesabat\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n

AB\u015e-\u0131n \u0259sas inflyasiya g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rind\u0259n biri olan \u015e\u0259xsi X\u0259rcl\u0259r \u0130ndeksi v\u0259 \u015e\u0259xsi X\u0259rcl\u0259rin Qiym\u0259t \u0130ndeksi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rind\u0259 s\u00fcrprizl\u0259r art\u0131mlar\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131qland\u0131qdan sonra dollar major valyutalar qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015fd\u0131. Cari h\u0259ft\u0259 is\u0259 AB\u015e-\u0131n \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 d\u0259 NFP hesabat\u0131, FED s\u0259dri Cerom Pavelin \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f\u0131 v\u0259 Avropa M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n\u0131n faiz q\u0259rar\u0131 il\u0259 bazarlarda g\u0259rgin bir h\u0259ft\u0259 olacaq.<\/p>\n

NFP<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u00fcm\u0259 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u0259rc olunacaq ayl\u0131q \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 d\u0259 NFP hesabat\u0131, FED-in ilk faiz endiriminin n\u0259 vaxt realla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan investorlar t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n diqq\u0259tl\u0259 izl\u0259nil\u0259c\u0259k. Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, m\u00f6vcud \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 analitikl\u0259r FED-in ilk faiz endiriminin iyunda ba\u015f tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n

\u018fm\u0259k bazar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fccl\u0259nm\u0259y\u0259 davam etdiyin\u0259 dair i\u015far\u0259l\u0259r, FED-in \u00e7ox tez yum\u015fald\u0131c\u0131 siyas\u0259t\u0259 ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259qdird\u0259, g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259nd\u0259n daha g\u00fccl\u00fc iqtisadiyyat\u0131n inflyasiyan\u0131 yenid\u0259n alovland\u0131ra bil\u0259c\u0259yi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 narahatl\u0131qlar\u0131 t\u0259tikl\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131lar, yanvar ay\u0131nda cari ilin \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck – 353 minlik art\u0131mdan sonra, iqtisadiyyat\u0131n qeyri-k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat\u0131 sektorunda fevral ay\u0131nda 190 min yeni i\u015f yeri a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131rlar. \u0130\u015fsizlik nisb\u0259tinin 3.7% s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 sabit qalaca\u011f\u0131 v\u0259 \u0259m\u0259k haqq\u0131 art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fclayim bir seqmentd\u0259 olaca\u011f\u0131 ehtimal edilir.<\/p>\n

H\u0259m\u00e7inin c\u00fcm\u0259 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131 hesabat\u0131ndan \u0259vv\u0259l investorlar FED s\u0259dri Cerom Pavelin \u00e7\u0259r\u015f\u0259nb\u0259 g\u00fcn\u00fc N\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259l\u0259r Palatas\u0131n\u0131n Komit\u0259si v\u0259 c\u00fcm\u0259 ax\u015fam\u0131 Senat qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pul-kredit siyas\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 yar\u0131millik t\u0259qdimatlar\u0131n\u0131 dinl\u0259m\u0259k \u015fans\u0131na sahib olacaqlar.<\/p>\n

Pavelin iqtisadiyyatdak\u0131 g\u00fcc\u0259 v\u0259 davaml\u0131 qiym\u0259t t\u0259zyiql\u0259rin\u0259 i\u015far\u0259 ed\u0259n son m\u0259lumatlar\u0131n i\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda siyas\u0259t\u00e7il\u0259rin faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259l\u0259rini azaltma\u011fa n\u0259 vaxt ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na q\u0259rar ver\u0259rk\u0259n ehtiyatl\u0131 yana\u015facaqlar\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259krarlamas\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.<\/p>\n

Ri\u00e7mond FED s\u0259dri Tomas Barkin c\u00fcm\u0259 g\u00fcn\u00fc bildirib ki, AB\u015e iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda qiym\u0259t t\u0259zyiql\u0259ri davam etdiyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Federal Ehtiyatlar Sisteminin \u0259sas faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini n\u0259 vaxt azaltma\u011fa ba\u015flaya bil\u0259c\u0259yini t\u0259xmin etm\u0259k h\u0259l\u0259 tezdir.<\/p>\n

H\u0259m\u00e7inin Amerikada a\u00e7\u0131qlanacaq Xidm\u0259t Sektorunda Biznes Aktivliyi \u0130ndeksi, \u0130\u015fsizlik M\u00fcavinat\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn M\u00fcraci\u0259tl\u0259rin Say\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri, “JOLTS” Bo\u015f v\u0259 Vakant \u0130\u015fyerl\u0259ri v\u0259 “Bej Kitab” Hesabatlar\u0131 dollar\u0131n major valyutalar qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndak\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 ciddi t\u0259sir ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

EUR<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u00fcm\u0259 ax\u015fam\u0131 toplanacaq Avropa M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n\u0131n (ECB) faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 h\u0259r hans\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fikliy\u0259 getm\u0259si proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmasa da, investorlar r\u0259smil\u0259rin faiz endiriml\u0259rini m\u00fczakir\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u0259l\u0259 tez oldu\u011funu t\u0259krar edib-etm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yini g\u00f6zl\u0259yirl\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nc\u0259ki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda “ECB”-nin faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sinin azald\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259rini geri \u00e7\u0259km\u0259sin\u0259, r\u0259smil\u0259rin inflyasiyan\u0131n 2% h\u0259d\u0259fin\u0259 qay\u0131tmaq yolunda oldu\u011funa dair daha \u00e7ox s\u00fcbut g\u00f6rm\u0259l\u0259ri laz\u0131m oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u0259m\u0259sin\u0259 baxmayaraq, bazarlar h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 bank\u0131n bu ilin sonunda faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259l\u0259rini azaltma\u011fa ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ehtimal edirl\u0259r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6t\u0259n h\u0259ft\u0259nin c\u00fcm\u0259 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131qlanan Avrozona inflyasiya m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 “ECB”-nin ehtiyatl\u0131 m\u00f6vqeyini d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259di. Fevral ay\u0131nda istehlak qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri inflyasiyas\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131landan daha az yava\u015flad\u0131. Man\u015fet inflyasiya da ehtimal edil\u0259nd\u0259n daha az d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

“ECB”-nin \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck narahatl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0259m\u0259k haqq\u0131 inflyasiyas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259dd\u0259n art\u0131q y\u00fcks\u0259k olaraq qalmas\u0131 v\u0259 riskl\u0259rin qiym\u0259tl\u0259r \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 t\u0259zyiql\u0259rini art\u0131rma\u011fa davam etm\u0259sidir.<\/p>\n

Bu h\u0259ft\u0259, h\u0259m\u00e7inin Avropa M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259dri Kristin Laqard\u0131n \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f\u0131, Avrozonada v\u0259 Almaniyada Xidm\u0259t Sektorunda Biznes Aktivliyi \u0130ndeksi v\u0259 Avrozonada \u00dcDM-in h\u0259cmi, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259, Almaniyada \u0130stehsal Qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri \u0130ndeksi (PP\u0130) v\u0259 S\u0259naye \u0130stehsal\u0131n\u0131n H\u0259cmi kimi \u00f6n\u0259mli iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r d\u0259 investorlar\u0131n diqq\u0259t m\u0259rk\u0259zind\u0259 olacaq.<\/p>\n

T\u0259hlill\u0259r\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, \u00f6t\u0259n h\u0259ft\u0259ni art\u0131m \u015fam\u0131 il\u0259 tamamlayan EURUSD m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sind\u0259 “bu\u011falar” qiym\u0259ti 1.08$ s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 qoruyub saxlaya bils\u0259l\u0259r, art\u0131m tendensiyas\u0131 davam ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

GBP<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00d6t\u0259n h\u0259ft\u0259 funt da korrektiv bahala\u015fma il\u0259 yadda qald\u0131. Cari h\u0259ft\u0259 \u0259rzind\u0259 Amerikada, Avrozonada v\u0259 Almaniyada a\u00e7\u0131qlanacaq iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r funt-sterlinqin d\u0259 d\u00fcnya birjalar\u0131ndak\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

NEFT<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130nvestorlar\u0131n “OPEC+”-un ikinci r\u00fcb \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259dar\u00fck m\u00fcqavil\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259dikl\u0259ri v\u0259 eyni zamanda AB\u015e, Avropa v\u0259 \u00c7ind\u0259n g\u0259l\u0259n yeni iqtisadi m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 da n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq, neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri c\u00fcm\u0259 g\u00fcn\u00fc artaraq h\u0259ft\u0259lik \u015fam\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131mla tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ayl\u0131q kontraktlar\u0131n d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sind\u0259n sonra “Brent” neftri h\u0259ft\u0259 \u0259rzind\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 2.4%, “WTI” nefti is\u0259 4.5%-d\u0259n \u00e7ox d\u0259y\u0259r qazan\u0131b.<\/p>\n

M\u0259lumatlara g\u00f6r\u0259, “OPEC-“in hasilat\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131n bu h\u0259ft\u0259 \u0259rzind\u0259 veril\u0259c\u0259yi v\u0259 h\u0259r \u00f6lk\u0259nin \u00f6z q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131 ehtimal edilir.<\/p>\n

Analitikl\u0259rin fikrinc\u0259 “OPEC+”-un k\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olaraq hasilat\u0131 2024-c\u00fc ilin ikinci r\u00fcb\u00fcn\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r azaltma\u011fa davam ed\u0259c\u0259yi ehtimallar\u0131 bazar\u0131n diqq\u0259t m\u0259rk\u0259zind\u0259 yer alacaq \u0259sas x\u0259b\u0259rdir.<\/p>\n

Q\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 d\u0259nizd\u0259ki geosiyasi g\u0259rginlik d\u0259 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259m\u0259y\u0259 davam edir.<\/p>\n

XAUUSD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00d6t\u0259n h\u0259ft\u0259 \u0259rzind\u0259 dollar qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0259skin bahala\u015fan q\u0131z\u0131l, h\u0259ft\u0259lik \u015fam\u0131n\u0131 2083$ s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 ba\u011flad\u0131. Ehtimal olunur ki, bu h\u0259ft\u0259 Amerikada a\u00e7\u0131qlanacaq \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 d\u0259 “NFP” g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lan kimi z\u0259if olarsa, q\u0131z\u0131ldak\u0131 art\u0131m tendensiyas\u0131 daha k\u0259skin xarakter ala bil\u0259r. “Bu\u011falar” “sar\u0131 metal”-\u0131n qiym\u0259tini 2081$ h\u0259ddinin \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 qoruyub saxlaya bils\u0259l\u0259r, bahala\u015fma 2100$, 2120$ v\u0259 2144$ h\u0259dl\u0259rin\u0259 kimi davam ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

\u0130nvestisiya il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 suallar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131: *1234 telefon n\u00f6mr\u0259si v\u0259 ya\u00a0www.investaz.az<\/a>\u00a0veb sayt\u0131 vasit\u0259sil\u0259 biz\u0259 \u00fcnvanlaya bil\u0259rsiniz.<\/p>\n

“\u0130NVEST-AZ \u0130nvestisiya \u015eirk\u0259ti” QSC-nin<\/p>\n

T\u0259dris v\u0259 Analiz Departamenti<\/p>\n

“\u0130NVEST-AZ \u0130nvestisiya \u015eirk\u0259ti”nin f\u0259aliyy\u0259tini Az\u0259rbaycan M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131 t\u0259nziml\u0259yir. \u015eirk\u0259t, 09.01.2016-c\u0131 il tarixli 087986 sayl\u0131 lisenziyas\u0131 \u0259sas\u0131nda broker, anderraytinq (diler), marja ticar\u0259ti (forex), f\u0259rdi investorlar\u0131n portfelinin idar\u0259 edilm\u0259si, market meykerlik v\u0259 sair investisiya xidm\u0259tl\u0259ri \u00fczr\u0259 f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/p>\n

Risk bildiri\u015fi<\/p>\n

Yuxar\u0131da g\u00f6st\u0259ril\u0259n m\u0259lumatlar tamamil\u0259 t\u00f6vsiy\u0259 xarakterlidir. Bu f\u0259aliyy\u0259t \u00fczr\u0259 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7iril\u0259n \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar y\u00fcks\u0259k risk qrupuna daxildir v\u0259 “\u0130NVEST-AZ \u0130nvestisiya \u015eirk\u0259ti” yuxar\u0131da g\u00f6st\u0259ril\u0259n m\u0259lumatlar \u0259sas g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259kl\u0259, h\u0259yata ke\u00e7iril\u0259n investisiya \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131 \u00fczr\u0259 he\u00e7 bir \u00f6hd\u0259lik da\u015f\u0131m\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ECB-d\u0259n faiz q\u0259rar\u0131, yoxsa AB\u015e-dan NFP hesabat\u0131? AB\u015e-\u0131n \u0259sas inflyasiya g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rind\u0259n biri olan \u015e\u0259xsi X\u0259rcl\u0259r \u0130ndeksi v\u0259 \u015e\u0259xsi X\u0259rcl\u0259rin Qiym\u0259t \u0130ndeksi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rind\u0259 s\u00fcrprizl\u0259r art\u0131mlar\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131qland\u0131qdan sonra dollar major valyutalar… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":41641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10177,11],"tags":[11968,13062],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41640"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/30"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41640"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41642,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41640\/revisions\/41642"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/41641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}