{"id":922,"date":"2020-12-21T17:36:58","date_gmt":"2020-12-21T13:36:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/infonews.az\/?p=922"},"modified":"2020-12-22T13:42:28","modified_gmt":"2020-12-22T09:42:28","slug":"az%c9%99rbaycanda-devalvasiya-ehtimali-varmi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/?p=922","title":{"rendered":"Az\u0259rbaycanda devalvasiya ehtimal\u0131 varm\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><b>&#8220;B\u00fcdc\u0259 layih\u0259si a\u00e7\u0131qlanana q\u0259d\u0259r ehtimallar\u0131m daha y\u00fcks\u0259k idi. 80 faiz ehtimal verirdim ki, devalvasiya olacaq. \u00c7\u00fcnki b\u00fcdc\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259yirdim. B\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259sirinin 5-6 milyard manat \u0259raf\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131rd\u0131m. Amma g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259n budur ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t daha m\u00fchafiz\u0259kar v\u0259 ehtiyatl\u0131 b\u00fcdc\u0259 layih\u0259si t\u0259rtib el\u0259di v\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259siri 3 milyard manat \u0259raf\u0131nda proqnozla\u015fd\u0131&#8221;.<\/b><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/infonews.az\/\"><strong>\u00a0\u0130NFONEWS<\/strong><\/a> &#8211;<b>BAKU.WS-\u0259<\/b> istinad\u0259n x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, Bu s\u00f6zl\u0259ri <b>BAKU.WS<\/b>-\u0259 \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 ekspert R\u0259\u015fad H\u0259s\u0259nov bildirib.<\/p>\n<p>Onun s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259sirinin \u00f6rt\u00fclm\u0259si yollar\u0131nda faktiki olaraq devalvasiya n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulmur: &#8220;Y\u0259ni, m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 h\u0259r hans\u0131 bir add\u0131m\u0131n at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilmir. Burada \u0259sas m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259r x\u0259zin\u0259 qal\u0131\u011f\u0131, xarici v\u0259 daxili borclanma, d\u00f6vl\u0259t obyektl\u0259rinin \u00f6z\u0259ll\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sidir.<\/p>\n<p>2021-ci il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn fiskal siyas\u0259tin icras\u0131nda yaranan riskl\u0259rin strukturunda m\u0259z\u0259nni riskini d\u0259 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f oluruq. H\u0259m neftin qiym\u0259ti, h\u0259m d\u0259 m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259. H\u0259r \u015fey proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kimi icra olunarsa, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr\u0259m ki, ciddi bir devalvasiya riski ortaya \u00e7\u0131xmayacaq. 2021-ci il b\u00fcdc\u0259 t\u0259rtib edil\u0259rk\u0259n manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si 1 dollara qar\u015f\u0131 1.7 il\u0259 g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcb.<\/p>\n<p>Amma h\u0259r hans\u0131 risk v\u0259 \u015foklar ortaya \u00e7\u0131xarsa, v\u0259ziyy\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, s\u0259hiyy\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259ri 1,4 milyard manata azald\u0131l\u0131b. 1,7 milyard 2020-ci il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259ndir. Bu istiqam\u0259td\u0259 hardasa 307 milyon azalmaya gedilib. Ehtimallar ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, pandemiya ilin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na gedib \u00e7atmayacaq v\u0259 risk aradan qalxacaq. Amma pandemiya ba\u015fa \u00e7atmazsa, burada art\u0131q m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n risk faktoru formala\u015facaq. Risk faktoru t\u0259kc\u0259 s\u0259hiyy\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin art\u0131m\u0131 il\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259nm\u0259c\u0259y\u0259k. Eyni zamanda real sektordan toplanan vergil\u0259rin h\u0259cmin\u0259 d\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n<p>Dig\u0259r m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Neftin qiym\u0259ti \u0259vv\u0259lki layih\u0259 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 1 barrel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 35-d\u0259n 40 dollara \u00e7at\u0131d\u0131rld\u0131. 40 dollar \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 olmas\u0131 y\u00fcks\u0259kdir. Beyn\u0259lxalq proqnozlara baxanda da bunu g\u00f6rm\u0259k olur.<\/p>\n<p>Amma neft bazar\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00e7ox \u00e7\u0259tindir. V\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259 h\u0259r hans\u0131 kataklizmin yaranmas\u0131 neft sektorundan toplanmas\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan t\u0259xmin\u0259n 1,6 manatl\u0131q vergil\u0259rin h\u0259cminin azalmas\u0131na g\u0259tirib \u00e7\u0131xara bil\u0259r&#8221;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;B\u00fcdc\u0259 layih\u0259si a\u00e7\u0131qlanana q\u0259d\u0259r ehtimallar\u0131m daha y\u00fcks\u0259k idi. 80 faiz ehtimal verirdim ki, devalvasiya olacaq. \u00c7\u00fcnki b\u00fcdc\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259yirdim. B\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259sirinin 5-6 milyard manat \u0259raf\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131rd\u0131m.&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":923,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,11],"tags":[171],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/922"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=922"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":925,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/922\/revisions\/925"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/923"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infonews.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}